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Interval Shortening Analysis — Black Signal Cycles 1–5

A comparative analysis of the five recorded Black Signal cycles, modeling the shortening interval and producing three candidate projections for a possible sixth occurrence.

Archive record

Data Set

All five cycles recorded since the original fragment were compiled with exact timestamps where available. The interval between successive cycles has decreased in each recorded case, though not by a constant ratio.

Candidate Models

Three mathematical models were fitted to the data: linear decay, exponential decay, and a threshold model in which the interval approaches but never reaches zero. The exponential model fits the existing data best but is explicitly noted as underdetermined with only five data points.

Caveat

The analysis does not attempt to explain why the interval is shortening, only to describe the pattern. No projection in this record should be treated as a prediction of when or whether a sixth cycle will occur.

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